Navigating Uncertainty: What Recent Policy and Market Trends Mean for You in 2025.

As 2025 unfolds, political shifts and economic developments are creating ripple effects across sectors, from healthcare and housing to global trade. For our clients—whether individuals, business owners, or investors—understanding these shifts is crucial. Here’s a snapshot of what’s happening and how it may affect you.

A Volatile Economic Outlook

Economic momentum is mixed. While consumer spending is strong—especially among wealthier households—it's increasingly tied to a soaring stock market. This "wealth effect" brings risk: any dip in the market could quickly stifle spending and growth.

Expect inflation to remain a major concern. While recent data shows a slight dip, inflation expectations for 2026 are already up to 4.3%, signaling potential pressure on interest rates. Treasury bond yields have fallen temporarily, but an uptick is expected later in the year, especially if new tariffs trigger further price hikes.

Housing Market: Tight Supply, High Prices

If you're looking to buy a home this year, brace for a competitive market. Elevated mortgage rates—hovering around 6.7%—and tight inventory are keeping home prices high. While new-home construction offers some relief, existing homeowners are still reluctant to sell due to low mortgage rates secured during the pandemic.

That said, the second half of the year may offer better conditions. If bond yields stay down and more sellers return to the market, buyers may gain some negotiating power. New rules also mean realtors may ask buyers to sign formal contracts before representation—another sign of an evolving, more formalized market.

Health Care & Labor Strain

Healthcare systems are under pressure as hospital occupancy rates climb—11% higher than pre-pandemic levels—largely due to a drop in staffed beds. Many hospitals, especially in high-demand areas, are now placing patients in hallways and conference rooms due to lack of space.

This stress is compounded by a shift toward outpatient care by for-profit providers, creating long-term questions about accessibility, affordability, and patient outcomes.

Foreign Policy, Trade & Global Risk

President Trump’s return to office is shaking up foreign affairs. Trade tensions are ramping up, particularly with China, Mexico, and Canada. Tariffs on goods like aluminum, cars, and agriculture products are already leading to price hikes and supply chain disruptions.

The U.S. has also pulled back on military aid to Ukraine, which may reshape global alliances and could result in Europe needing to step up. Energy markets are on alert too, especially in areas dependent on Canadian exports—expect gas prices to fluctuate significantly this year.

How We Can Help: Legal Insight for a Complex Time

At Spizzirri Law, we understand that these macroeconomic trends carry real implications for your financial well-being. As a tax-focused law firm, here's how we can assist:

• Strategic Tax Planning: With new legislation and potential tax cuts on the horizon, our team can help you structure your income and assets to minimize your tax burden and prepare for future law changes.

• Real Estate Tax Guidance: Buying or selling property in 2025? We’ll advise you on property tax implications, potential deductions, and IRS requirements under the latest housing conditions.

• Business & Trade Advisory: Whether you import/export goods or face international taxation issues, our legal team can help you navigate the complexities of shifting trade policies and tariffs.

• Estate & Wealth Transfers: Rising inflation and volatile markets may impact your long-term plans. We’ll help you protect and pass down your assets effectively and tax-efficiently.

Reference: The Kiplinger Letter: Forecasts for Executives and Investors-Vol. 102, No. 10